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Saturday, December 02, 2006

Sifting through the "Won't Says"

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In to-day's The Age, there is a list of those who refuse to comment or are undeclared in the Beazley-Rudd leadership ballot. Miss Eagle is rushing in where angels - with more wisdom than she - would fear to tread by trying to sift through the names.

Arch is aligned with the Right. Unlikely to deviate from Beazley. May be keeping quiet in the hope of maximizing his own interests.

Mark is a Shoppie. He's also from WA - just like Kim. His vote is with Beazley

Trish is on the Left. Trish and husband Mark had strong union involvement on the left although Mark is no longer a union official. He is the Director of the Northern Territory's WorkSafe. People with strong union affiliations will be seriously considering their situation because Trade Unions will be waying up how a Rudd-Gillard campaign will affect the fight against the Howard Government's industrial relation laws. Miss Eagle has also heard that women on the Left aren't so enamoured of Gillard. Miss Eagle's guess is that Trish will stick with the status quo.

Chris's union affiliations are on the Left with the Miscos and the Firies. But he's from WA and blood is probably thicker than water. This is hard to pick but, when the chips are down, Miss Eagle gives this one to Beazley.

Miss Eagle's hero: looks like Clark Kent but is the Superman of Estimates Committees. Picking his vote will be like deciding whether an Easter Island statue is looking happy or sad. Faulkner is on the Left. He sent himself to the back bench when Latham became leader and has not re-emerged. Does he want to come back to the front bench? With whom will he deal? How does he see his own future? All these questions and more are conundrums. Miss Eagle cannot pick this one but thinks Beazley could collect.

Miss Eagle is a don't know on this - but Jenkins father and son have been around a while like Beazley father and son. Miss Eagle would put this vote in the Beazley ballot box.

Kerr is on the Left - but the outspoken Tasmanian could go either way. Difficult to pick. Self-interest could be the influential feature of where he puts his vote.

Catherine is Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Treasury; Wayne Swan Shadow Treasurer. Ministers and private secretaries are not guaranteed to be of the same stripe but this time there could be a coalescence of views - particularly in view of self-interest. Miss Eagle gives this one to Beazley.

West Australian. Nuff said. A Beazley vote.

This one will go to Rudd. Queensland politics (non-AWU) will influence this one.

Shadow Minister for Ageing, Carers and Disabilities. On the Left. Miss Eagle's nose tells her this will go to Beazley.

Miss Eagle would have put this non-factional warrior in the moderate, rational category until recent years when he has been known to dummy spit and display a large measure of self-interest. Because of the last characteristic, this vote will be hard to pick but chances are it will go to Beazley.
Sunday 3 Dec 2006: McMullan has declared for Rudd

On the Left. Strong Trade Union connections. This will go to Beazley.

On the Right. AWU connections. Another in the Beazley ballot box.

Undeclared? Where would anyone expect Robert Ray's cards to be? Only close to his chest. Beazley.

Another in Labor's father and son tradition. Strong Trade Union connections. Beazley.

Wazza is from the NT and on the Left. Large Aboriginal constituency. Who's going to do it for Wazza (self-interest will count for quite a bit) and who's going to do it for his electorate? Beazley vacated the ground on the Wik issue back in the late 90s and left the running to Dazza Melham and Wazza - so why wouldn't his vote go to Beazley.

Ho hum! Another West Australian, another Beazley vote.