Bail-up Barnaby is at it again. The Voluntary Student Unionism vote may not occur. My prediction that Barnaby Joyce would vote for the Telstra bill proved correct. Predicting Barnaby's vote is not so simple this time.
- The Nationals, particularly the Queensland Nats, are concerned about the outcome for regional universities.
- The majority of Liberals have an immovable ideological stance on this which seems to centre on a hatred for the word 'union' - so watch out Mothers' Union of the Anglican Church, various debating unions and so on.
- There was great time pressure on the Telstra bill which appears not be so great on this issue.
- The pressure brought about negotiations which the Nationals could use as a cop out when voting for the Telstra bill. There are no negotiated settlements in site on this one - yet.
The Nationals are unlikely - even it is only one of them - to go against their major coalition partner. However, this could turn out to be an issue - like unfair dismissal laws were for a long time - on which the government gives every appearance of trying with but will, in the end, not go to the barricades on. It will wait. Watch Ron Boswell. His message in support of the Government was quite clear in the beginning, the middle, and the end of the Telstra debate - and it didn't change. He too is a Queensland National like Barnaby. The difference is he has a leadership role. Barnaby was turned loose like an attack dog by the Queensland Nats. The virtuous populist new boy as opposed to the responsible, experienced Boswell. Let's see if the Nats can get a price for Barnaby's vote this time. The rate of exchange may not be anywhere near the same.
